Market Potential Calculator
By Jan Suski. I go deep on every review, checking every number against its source and digging up details other coverage misses, a habit from six years of SEO and link building for tech companies. Bylines at Surfer, Brand24, and Senuto. How the scoring works.
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How it works
Pick Top-down to narrow a total industry figure through a reach percentage and a capture percentage, or pick Bottom-up to build the same result from a customer count and an average revenue per customer. Every field recalculates on each keystroke, and switching currencies at the top updates every label and total to match. Every number in the result comes from what you type; no hidden industry constant sits inside the math.
Who it's for
Built for founders and product teams sizing a market before a pitch deck, and for analysts or SEO writers who need a TAM, SAM, and SOM figure they can defend, because it was built from a customer count and a capture percentage they entered themselves. The scenario table runs the same formula at three capture rates, so a defensible range replaces one guess.
Reading the results
TAM is the ceiling: the whole addressable market. SAM narrows that to the segment the reach percentage can serve, and SOM narrows again to the share the capture percentage realistically wins. The three scenario rows show a conservative, base, and stretch capture rate side by side, so one changed reach percentage produces three outcomes at once, a range you can defend in the room.
When to use it
- Sizing a new market before writing the market-sizing section of a pitch deck.
- Checking if a competitor's stated TAM in a press release holds up when rebuilt bottom-up.
- Scoping a new product line from a customer count and an average deal size, without waiting on an industry report.
- Building the numbers behind a market-sizing article without leaning on someone else's estimate.
TAM
$0
SAM
$0
SOM
$0
Penetration-rate scenarios
| Scenario | SOM share of SAM | Resulting SOM |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | % | $0 |
| Moderate | % | $0 |
| Aggressive | % | $0 |
SOM = SAM × SOM%
This math runs top-down. The industry total gets narrowed twice: first by reach, then by what a new entrant can realistically win.
Market volume
0
customers
Market value (TAM)
$0
Obtainable revenue (SOM)
$0
Penetration-rate scenarios
| Scenario | Market share | Customers won | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | % | 0 | $0 |
| Moderate | % | 0 | $0 |
| Aggressive | % | 0 | $0 |
Market value (TAM) = market volume × average revenue per customer
SOM = market value × expected share%
This math runs bottom-up, starting from a customer group you can count yourself.
Treat every output as a starting estimate. Cross-check TAM against a named industry report, SAM against your sales territory or feature set, and SOM against a comparable competitor's first-year share before using any of these numbers in a pitch deck or budget.
How this is calculatedtwo multiplications, no hidden constants
Every number in this tool comes from what you type. Money doesn't grow on trees, and no hidden industry constant is baked into the math to make one appear on its own.
Top-down mode runs two multiplications. SAM equals TAM multiplied by the SAM percentage, and SOM equals SAM multiplied by the SOM percentage. Bottom-up mode runs a different pair. Market value equals customer count multiplied by average revenue per customer, and SOM equals that market value multiplied by the expected share percentage.
The scenario table applies the same SOM formula three more times, once each at a conservative, moderate, and aggressive capture rate, so the range shows up before you commit to one number in a plan.
Worked example$500M TAM at 30% SAM, 5% SOM
The tool's own defaults are a $500,000,000 TAM, a 30% SAM, and a 5% SOM. SAM comes out to $150,000,000, the reach-adjusted slice of that total industry figure. SOM comes out to $7,500,000, the number a first-year revenue plan gets built around.
Run the same TAM and SAM through the scenario table at 1%, 5%, and 10% capture, and SOM moves from $1,500,000 at the conservative end to $15,000,000 at the aggressive end, a tenfold spread from one input.
What this does and doesn't tell youno sourcing, no benchmark, on you to verify
This tool multiplies the percentages you enter. It doesn't check if 30% is a realistic SAM for your category, and it doesn't check your TAM figure against a real industry report.
A capture rate you pick because it looks good on a slide is pie in the sky. The SOM it produces looks just as good, and means just as little.
Top-down and bottom-up mode answer the same question from different directions, and they rarely land on the same number for a real business. A widening gap between the two usually means the TAM being narrowed down and the customer count being multiplied up describe two different slices of the market.
Cross-check every output before it reaches a pitch deck or a budget. Pull your TAM from a named, dated industry report, and test your SAM percentage against your actual sales territory or feature set. Benchmark your SOM percentage against a comparable competitor's documented first-year share before you present it as a target.
A single SOM number is only one scenario among several. Putting all your eggs in one basket on one capture-rate guess is how a pitch deck's revenue plan misses by half in year one. A market database ranking like the market database comparison on this site is a reasonable place to start hunting for a TAM figure you don't already have.
What inputs does this calculator need?TAM, SAM%, SOM%, or customers, revenue, share%
Top-down mode needs a TAM, a SAM percentage, and a SOM percentage. Bottom-up mode needs a customer count, an average revenue per customer, and an expected share percentage. Every field loads with a default value, so the result never sits empty on the first screen.
How do I calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM by hand?two multiplications, worked example above
SAM equals TAM multiplied by your SAM percentage. SOM equals SAM multiplied by your SOM percentage. A $500 million TAM at a 30% SAM and a 5% SOM works out to a $150 million SAM and a $7.5 million SOM, the same numbers this tool's defaults produce.
Why does the tool show three scenario rows?conservative, moderate, aggressive
One capture rate hides how much a market-sizing plan can swing. The conservative, moderate, and aggressive rows run the same SOM formula at three different rates. A change in one assumption becomes a visible range across the table, easier to defend in a room full of questions than a single guess.
Does this calculator store or send my numbers anywhere?no, it all runs in your browser
No. Every calculation runs in your browser. Nothing you type gets logged or sent to a server. Refresh the page and the fields reset to their defaults.
Where can I read more about market sizing inside market intelligence work?two related guides
The types of market intelligence guide covers where market sizing sits next to competitor, product, and customer intelligence work. Primary research, real interviews and pilot sales data, doesn't cost an arm and a leg, but it takes longer to gather than pulling one figure from a published report, and the market research methods guide covers both approaches side by side.
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